Ecography paper on southern overprediction of paleo species distribution models.
In this month’s issue of Ecography, Edward Davis published a study that found a consistent mis-match between Ecological Niche Models of mammal species distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (~20,000 years ago). This work suggests that niche models that are used to predict range shifts under future warming would be better calibrated if they also included data from Pleistocene and Holocene fossil distributions.
Davis, E.B., McGuire, J.L., and Orcutt, J.D., 2014, Ecological niche models of mammalian glacial refugia show consistent bias: Ecography, v. 37, no. 11, p. 1133–1138, URL:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecog.01294/abstract.
In that same issue, Davis has an editorial with Jenny McGuire discussing the future of conservation paleobiogography.
McGuire, J.L., and Davis, E.B., 2014, Conservation paleobiogeography: the past, present and future of species distributions: Ecography, v. 37, no. 11, p. 1092–1094, URL:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecog.01337/abstract.